Just talkin’

My politics lean Libertarian, informed by experience in business, and reading of the founding fathers via the Federalist, Thomas Paine’s work, and Benjamin Franklin’s biographies. This is simply stated as a disclaimer to note that I have no vested interest in the group known as “Democrats” choice to nominate to the office of President in 2008.

In order to win the November contest, I will proceed to make the case that the Democratic party stands the better chance by putting Hillary Clinton up for nomination.  It’s a simple case and can probably be thwarted easily, but it helps me sleep at night knowing that the media isn’t giving Camp Hillary a fair hearing on her case for staying in.

The election for President is won by Electoral College votes, not popular votes, and not media polling. For visual aide, take a look at the Electoral vote split in the past few elections, courtesy Wikipedia.

2004 - Republicans win, 286 to 251.

2000 - Republicans win, 271 to 266.

1996 - Democrats win, 379 to 159.

1996 - Democrats win, 370 to 168.

Information prior to 1992 is irrelevant because the Democrats were fielding candidates such as Mondale, Dukakis, and Carter.  During those years Republicans could have fielded a mop and won.

First, let’s point out what isn’t up for grabs.  Technically, anytime there is an election, everything is up for grabs, but Presidential politics is following voting trends, then we can look at some reasonable “locks” for both Republican and Democratic candidates for President.

Starting on the left (pun!), Washington, Oregon, and California are solidly D for 73.

The next swath is the “R” dominated Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for 70.

Solid Blues can next be found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and the northeastern states of Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and DC for 167.

The Red South counts Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi for 62.

Now we’ve counted the solid states: 18 Democratic states, and 15 Republican states for 240 and 132 Electoral College delegates, respectively.  If nothing serious changes from the last four Presidential Elections, the Democrats are within 29 delegates of seating the next President.  The Democrats have been closer than that for the last two elections, but managed to lose far too many of the Swing States (Wikipedia ref).

Of the 33 remaining states, winning Florida plus one small state is just one path to victory for the Democrats.  It is also possible for the Democrats to “screw the pooch” by losing states like California (54), currently headed by a liberal Republican governator, or Michigan and Wisconsin (combined 28).

But I digress.

Why does this math make Hillary Clinton a good choice for the Democrats for 2008?

In Florida, Hillary blows Obama away.  So much so that one could reasonably expect that putting Obama on the top of the ticket is handing Florida to the Republicans.  RCP shows McCain beating Obama, and Hillary eeking out a win. Hillary also carries Arkansas by a landslide, the state she is from and the state that Republicans have owned in the last two elections.  There it is, Arkansas + Florida = The Election.

In a majority of the Swing States, which demographically are poorer, less educated, and swing due to the ability of each party to appeal to different aspects of the population, Hillary Clinton has outperformed Obama.  Compare them at RealClearPolitics.

There you have it, Democrats,  who are not obligated to choose their candidate by any standard other than those chosen by the party of Democrats, have the ability to put up the candidate most likely to win the general election.  The convention is meant to be a forum for debating the qualities of the party candidates and to argue until a decision is made.  Take a look at the convention that brought Abraham Lincoln to the forefront of the Republican Presidential ticket.   It was a calculated move that resulted in winning the Presidency.

With that being said, it does appear that the Democrats can win the race this year even if they put a wet towel up for candidacy.  Obama and Clinton both can effect a “Regime Change” in the States.

On the other hand, if a previously solidly Democrat state goes McCain’s way, and the Democrats can’t make it up in the other states, it could go the way of the Elephant.  One hangup could be Michigan and it’s 18 delegates.  RCP shows McCain likely to win either way, but it’s close.  Another is Wisconsin and its 10 delegates.

I’ll be casting my ballot in the Idaho Republican primary next week for Ron Paul, simply to register the Libertarian perspective, and in the general for whomever is listed next to the “L”.  Down the ballot it gets much more difficult in the general, but most of Idaho’s general election winners are decided at the Republican primary.