I watched a documentary on Vietnam POW’s and McCain was one of the vets interviewed in it.  Enlightening film, and a completely unpoliticized view of John.  Because of that, I generally like the guy.  He’s been fighting against the GOP establishment since before I was born.  Seriously.  He actually ran against Dubya in 2000 on the platform of wresting control of the Republican party, and the country, away from the power elite.  In that year, the power elite did what they do and made sure John didn’t get very far, even by insinuating that he had a bastard black child in a telephone poll.  Wow.  Even a black one!

But now it’s 8 years later and the dufus they rolled into the White House has made so many enemies that the GOP figures they couldn’t win if Jesus himself were running, with Ghandi as the VP.  It’s about this time that the power elite of the GOP apparently figured “Hey, someone’s gotta take a fall, lets have McCain do it!”

1. He’s a war hero
2. He’s been trying to be President since forever
3. They owe it to him
4. When he loses, they can blame him for “losing the White House”

And John McCain, the servant to his country that he is, will take the task, which he must know is beyond uphill, and get buried with the institution’s massive failure.

By the way, the only Republican with the balls, brains, and moxy to stand up and make the Republicans look better than Obama is Condoleezza Rice.  Problem is she’s too smart to take the fall in ‘08.

Step 1: Save, do not spend, at least 10% of your income, adding consistently.

Step 2: Put that money to work in interest bearing accounts.

Step 3: Invest wisely, not by gambling, or entrusting your money to fools, but by entrusting  your money to wise investment advice.

Step 4: Take advantage of opportunities that present themselves, rather than being too scared.  This is called “luck” by those who don’t do it.

Step 5: Diversify, carry life insurance, teach your kids financial principles, and thus ensure a lasting legacy.

Seems easy enough.  I think the first and greatest hurdle is Step 1.  As an American raised in the culture of the last 30 years, I am programmed and trained to be a consumer, and also a slave to the corporate labor pool and corporate “consumer” pool.  Happiness is found in the stuff I can buy, and more stuff is the reason for my labors.  I am willing to forsake time with my family that I can earn an extra buck to buy more stuff.  I will climb the corporate ladder by flaggelating my values to earn a promotion, to earn an extra buck, to buy more stuff.  My wish list of material possessions, immaterial purchases, and fashion far exceeds my ability to purchase, but that’s why Visa and MasterCard are in business.  But I digress…

In order to win the November contest, I will proceed to make the case that the Democratic party stands the better chance by putting Hillary Clinton up for nomination.  It’s a simple case and can probably be thwarted easily, but it helps me sleep at night knowing that the media isn’t giving Camp Hillary a fair hearing on her case for staying in.

The election for President is won by Electoral College votes, not popular votes, and not media polling. For visual aide, take a look at the Electoral vote split in the past few elections, courtesy Wikipedia.

2004 - Republicans win, 286 to 251.

2000 - Republicans win, 271 to 266.

1996 - Democrats win, 379 to 159.

1996 - Democrats win, 370 to 168.

Information prior to 1992 is irrelevant because the Democrats were fielding candidates such as Mondale, Dukakis, and Carter.  During those years Republicans could have fielded a mop and won.

First, let’s point out what isn’t up for grabs.  Technically, anytime there is an election, everything is up for grabs, but Presidential politics is following voting trends, then we can look at some reasonable “locks” for both Republican and Democratic candidates for President.

Starting on the left (pun!), Washington, Oregon, and California are solidly D for 73.

The next swath is the “R” dominated Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for 70.

Solid Blues can next be found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and the northeastern states of Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and DC for 167.

The Red South counts Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi for 62.

Now we’ve counted the solid states: 18 Democratic states, and 15 Republican states for 240 and 132 Electoral College delegates, respectively.  If nothing serious changes from the last four Presidential Elections, the Democrats are within 29 delegates of seating the next President.  The Democrats have been closer than that for the last two elections, but managed to lose far too many of the Swing States (Wikipedia ref).

Of the 33 remaining states, winning Florida plus one small state is just one path to victory for the Democrats.  It is also possible for the Democrats to “screw the pooch” by losing states like California (54), currently headed by a liberal Republican governator, or Michigan and Wisconsin (combined 28).

But I digress.

Why does this math make Hillary Clinton a good choice for the Democrats for 2008?

In Florida, Hillary blows Obama away.  So much so that one could reasonably expect that putting Obama on the top of the ticket is handing Florida to the Republicans.  RCP shows McCain beating Obama, and Hillary eeking out a win. Hillary also carries Arkansas by a landslide, the state she is from and the state that Republicans have owned in the last two elections.  There it is, Arkansas + Florida = The Election.

In a majority of the Swing States, which demographically are poorer, less educated, and swing due to the ability of each party to appeal to different aspects of the population, Hillary Clinton has outperformed Obama.  Compare them at RealClearPolitics.

There you have it, Democrats,  who are not obligated to choose their candidate by any standard other than those chosen by the party of Democrats, have the ability to put up the candidate most likely to win the general election.  The convention is meant to be a forum for debating the qualities of the party candidates and to argue until a decision is made.  Take a look at the convention that brought Abraham Lincoln to the forefront of the Republican Presidential ticket.   It was a calculated move that resulted in winning the Presidency.

With that being said, it does appear that the Democrats can win the race this year even if they put a wet towel up for candidacy.  Obama and Clinton both can effect a “Regime Change” in the States.

On the other hand, if a previously solidly Democrat state goes McCain’s way, and the Democrats can’t make it up in the other states, it could go the way of the Elephant.  One hangup could be Michigan and it’s 18 delegates.  RCP shows McCain likely to win either way, but it’s close.  Another is Wisconsin and its 10 delegates.

I’ll be casting my ballot in the Idaho Republican primary next week for Ron Paul, simply to register the Libertarian perspective, and in the general for whomever is listed next to the “L”.  Down the ballot it gets much more difficult in the general, but most of Idaho’s general election winners are decided at the Republican primary.

To start with, why did I choose this book?

It all began on a wild Monday when I rushed to a business appointment only to find I was 1 hour early, and the only appealing thing to do was to browse a nearby Barnes & Noble. I previewed several books and made a few observations.

1. Economics literature at this Barnes & Noble is being severely encroached by “real-estate manuals” on how to flip properties and become a millionaire.
2. Of the 5 or so choices, most were facile in their treatment of the subject.
3. One option was literally six titles from Adam Smith to Keynes crammed into one unfortunate book-binder’s weekend project.
4. This book proposes to offer a history of economics as an answer to the posited question, and offer a syncretic solution to politics, with the chapter heading “The End of Left Versus Right.”
5. The hour was nearly up, and I still wanted to know what was inside these pages.

My goal is to develop a more complex understanding of economics to lay a metaphysical foundation for an ethical impetus for my legacy. Having read most of the tangled web of wikipedia articles on the subject, beginning here, it seems that another direction is necessary.

Economics as the domain of college professors, Bernake and Greenspan, and U.S. Presidential hopefuls is a complicated game of trying to prove bad decisions are actually good decisions. But on main street, economics is very simple, and very basic. Here’s the basis of good economic policy:

Production - Consumption = Wealth or Debt

This is obvious to anyone who takes home a paycheck. If you consume more than you produce, you have debt, which eventually must be paid, and paying is a way of consuming your production. If you produce more than you consume, you will accumulate wealth. It works every time.

As a man who owns multiple small businesses, I learned really quick that income must be greater than outflow to produce profits. Here’s another equation for Economists to learn:

Income - Outflow = Net Profit or Loss

Ok, now that we have that simple lesson out of the way, and if we can agree on the math contained above, let us proceed to evaluate the current state of America.

What is America? In one sense it is a collection of the families who live between the 49th parallel north, and the Rio Grande. Those families comprise a complex economy, but at the end of the day, the basic equations still hold true. I love Wikipedia. It’s been proven to be more accurate than Britannica et. al. For a quick learning curve on the current trade situation, check out this article.

In all but 2 years since 1971 America has consumed more than it has produced. In 2006 America consumed 758 billion dollars more than it produced. That is a lot, and that’s just one year. A quick tabulation shows that America has consumed over 6 1/2 trillion dollars more than produced in the last 37 years. There aren’t a lot of businesses that can run on this kind of track record for that long. Eventually the piper must be paid.

For a better illustration than I can muster, and from someone with the track record to warrant attention, check out this Warren Buffett article from 2003 - America’s Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling The Nation Out From Under Us. Here’s A Way To Fix The Problem–And We Need To Do It Now. - November 10, 2003. Originally found here.